The Economist’s latest piece on tipping points is a wake-up call for policymakers and CFOs
Scott Kelly
The article in The Economist – “Earth’s climate is approaching irreversible tipping points” – sets out a clear message. Multiple Earth systems are edging toward thresholds where change becomes self-sustaining and irreversible, from Amazon dieback to Greenland ice loss and a weakened Atlantic circulation. Tipping points are not given the scientific attention that they deserve.
While scientists are working towards improving early warning systems, the policy mindset still treats these as distant hypotheticals rather than live risk scenarios.
One tipping point can trigger another, which turns uncertainty into a compounding downside for economies, food systems, and financial stability.
As Mr Layboourn says: “The mental model of the climate threat among key people – particularly in senior parts of government – has yet to catch up with the fact that the nature of the climate threat includes things like tipping points.”
Scientists note that warming levels associated with key thresholds span wide ranges. But that uncertainty is not an excuse for delay. It is rational to plan for tail risks with disproportionate impact, especially when considering the magnitude of impacts the world could be facing.
These events are planetary scale, irreversible and hugely consequential to the prosperity for all people on earth.
Early warning is a start but policy, finance, and emergency planning need to be stress-tested against tipping risks with the same discipline used for pandemics and financial crises.
My take
The uncertainty around tipping is not a reason to wait, but a reason to put in better processes to govern tail-risks. Current levels of warming already put the world at risk of triggering tipping points. As a climate-risk economist, I see a widening gap between scientific signals and institutional action. We need to get serious about the risk of tipping points being triggered and understand the consequences for the world when they are triggered. This goes beyond the global economy and social systems, and to understand what the implications are for business.
Source: LinkedIn, 19 Aug 2025 http://www.linkedin.com/in/drscottkelly
The Economist article may be found in the following link: https://lnkd.in/exNccvBP
Dr Scott Kelley PhD, MPhil is an economist and climate strategist who works at the intersection of complexity and sustainability. He has applied systems thinking to solve some of the world’s most challenging problems, bringing a holistic, complex systems perspective to every project. He is a member of the board of advisors at Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, as well as senior Vice President of Risilience, and Chief Economic Advisor to the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment.
An economist who confused climate with weather
